- October’s MOP 21.68 billion casino win trailed last year by 10% and beat September’s 2026 low by 20%.
- June’s 12.1% drop started the run, followed by 8.4% in July and 1.2% in each of August and September before October’s 10%.
- Year-to-date revenue is MOP 208.8 billion, up just 1.6% after growth of 14.3% through March.
- Baccarat supplied 83.9% of third-quarter casino-game revenue, but the monthly figures do not split revenue by game.
MACAU – Macau gaming revenue for October 2026 came in at MOP 21.68 billion, or close to $2.7 billion, 10% under the MOP 24.09 billion of October 2025 and the fifth month running that casinos have trailed their prior-year pace, Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau figures show. A 20% climb from the MOP 18.06 billion of September and mainland China’s National Day Golden Week, both inside the month, were not enough to close the gap.
Last October Was Macau’s Strongest In Six Years
Casinos won MOP 24.09 billion in October 2025, 15.9% more than in October 2024, and JP Morgan analysts called it the strongest month in six years. JP Morgan put VIP revenue growth at 40% to 45% that month, and Seaport Research analysts cited high VIP hold rates, meaning casinos held an unusually large share of what high rollers wagered.
Revenue driven by high-roller hold is the hardest kind to repeat. This October finished MOP 2.4 billion short of it, a deeper fall than the 7% Jefferies had penciled in.
The Monthly Table Has No Baccarat Line
The bureau, known as DICJ, reports one revenue figure for all casino games, so there is no baccarat-only number for October. Its quarterly statistics are the best guide: baccarat brought in MOP 50.5 billion of MOP 60.2 billion in third-quarter casino-game revenue, or 83.9%, with mass-market baccarat at MOP 33.6 billion and VIP baccarat at MOP 16.9 billion.
At that share, a move this size is mostly a baccarat move, though October’s game split will not be known until the bureau publishes fourth-quarter figures.
DICJ also reports what casinos kept, not what players bet, so the table cannot separate fewer wagers from better results for players.
The game’s math did not change in between: an eight-deck game carries a baccarat house edge of 1.06% on Banker and 1.24% on Player, or about MOP 1.06 and MOP 1.24 lost per MOP 100 wagered over the long run. A gap this large comes from how much was bet and how results ran around those edges.
Best Baccarat Sites tracks the same win measure for Nevada’s baccarat tables.
Year-To-Date Growth Has Faded Since March
Golden Week gave October a 20% lift over September, the weakest month of 2026, but it did not break the streak of year-over-year declines that began in June. The FIFA World Cup, which ended July 19, took the blame for the June and July drops, an explanation that does not apply to October.
The January-to-October total stands at MOP 208.8 billion, 1.6% ahead of the MOP 205.4 billion booked over the same 10 months of 2025. Growth was 14.3% after March, 6.8% after June and 3.2% after September. CICC Hong Kong Securities saw “no clear near-term inflection point,” the Macau Daily Times reported.
November And December Need About MOP 13.6 Billion A Month To Hit The Target
Chief Executive Sam Hou Fai said in October that the government was holding its 2026 forecast at MOP 236 billion and would weigh October’s result before any change. After October, MOP 27.2 billion remains to reach that figure, or about MOP 13.6 billion a month across November and December, against September’s low of MOP 18.06 billion.
DICJ posts each month’s total on the first day of the following month, which puts November’s figure at the start of December.
